this is the first time in our polling that we've seen romney with a double digit lead over obama. that would be a huge turn arn if the numbers held, a 20-point net turn around from the election in 2008. >> paul: okay, if that's true, and i agree with you the polls are showing that movement of independents to romney, if that's right and a big switch from 2008, why doesn't romney have a more comfortable lead at least 2 or 3 points in these polls? >> 90% of the disagreement in the polls right now, paul, involves differing assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. if we have an electorate that looks like 2004, with equal numbers of democrats and republicans turning out, then a double digit lead for romney among independents means he wins comfortably. >> paul: right. >> on the other hand if we have an electorate that looks like 2008 with 7 percentage points more democrats than republicans in the electorate, then that's probably enough to save obama, even if he loses independents by a dozen points. >> well, where-- >> it's all in the makeup. >> paul: where do you think the recogni